n a 1997 New Yorker article, Malcolm Gladwell charted the typical life cycle of a trend. First, ''innovators'' (otherwise known as ''cool people'') pioneer a style. Then it is picked up by ''early adopters'' (or people who hang out with cool people). Next, it passes to the ''early majority'' (people who see cool people across the street), followed by the ''late majority'' (people who see cool people on MTV). Finally, it winds its way to the ''laggards'' (you and me).

This year, however, the cycle was disrupted, if not destroyed entirely. Certain trends were declared both ascendant and passé simultaneously -- often in the same news article. As a result, the formerly linear lifespan of a trend, from hot to not, now resembles something closer to a Mobius strip.

The most notorious, and obsessively analyzed, example is the trucker hat: a baseball cap made of foam and plastic mesh, sporting a kitschy brand name or slogan. Chroniclers of this trend agree that a pivotal moment occurred in February, when the pop star Justin Timberlake was photographed wearing such a hat after the Grammy Awards. Soon after his appearance, though, style-conscious Weblogs posted sneering denunciations of the hats. Mainstream media outlets started alerting their readers to the hat's popularity, while simultaneously explaining that the trend was already on the wane. (In a New York Times article in May, a cap-sporting musician explained that the hats, once cool, were now so uncool as to be cool once again.)

Such was the confusion that Rolling Stone opened its ''Hot List 2003'' with a photo of a trucker hat -- then promptly declared the trend over. ''Hype and backlash are now the exact same thing,'' the author explained, citing the Hilton sisters (''the human equivalent of the trucker hat'') as a further example of this phenomenon.

The advent of the both-hot-and-not trend can be ascribed in part to the cool cycle itself, which by its nature is perpetually speeding up. But there is also a more concrete reason that the cycle overtook itself this year. Fashion companies, like Von Dutch, which makes trucker hats, are petrified that their products will become ubiquitous and thus lose their cachet. So rather than upping production to meet trucker-hat demand, Von Dutch raised prices and held back popular styles to curtail sales. Because of tactics like this, by the time the average consumer gets his or her hands on a trendy item, the innovators have long since moved on, with their media Boswells in tow. Coming soon to a mall near you: hot new trends that are already over.

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