REDICTING the future of technology is a fool's game. Still, every now and then, you recognize that a product is so obviously superior to what came before it, the writing is on the wall in block letters big enough for Mr. Magoo to read. The graphic elegance of the first Macintosh spelled the demise of DOS, the crisp sound and compact size of the CD unmistakably suggested the vinyl record's decline, and the convenience of the digital camera set off a tailspin in film sales that continues today.

Don't look now, but another machine you probably own is on its way out: the VCR. Its disruptive successor is the cheap set-top DVD recorder.

Now, the phrase "cheap set-top DVD recorder" may strike you as two oxymorons in one. First of all, in this era of flat screens that are only two inches thick, the last place you'd set a set-top box is on the top of the set. (Nominations are welcome for a better term that distinguishes these TV-room DVD recorders from the ones that you attach to a computer.)

Second, there's that bit about "cheap." Everybody knows that set-top DVD recorders are expensive. The best ones include a hard drive for TiVo-like flexibility but cost $600 and up. DVD-only models start at $400 or so. Logic and pundits have long maintained that the VCRs funeral rites won't begin in earnest until DVD-recorder prices fall below $300 - and now they have, led by Gateway's AR-230 and a few rivals from lesser-known companies.

The brilliance of these stripped-down machines is that they're so easy to explain to people. "It's exactly like a VCR, except you use blank DVD's instead of tapes." You hook the thing up to your TV the same way, operate the remote control the same way and choose a recording speed the same way.

Yet discs offer a list of advantages as long as your arm. DVD's offer far better picture quality than VHS tape. They never require rewinding or fast-forwarding. You can never record over something by accident. DVD's are cheaper to mail, and a lot more of them fit into the same shelf space. DVD's may well last a lot longer than tapes, too, which begin deteriorating in as little as 15 years (the DVD format is too new to know for sure).

Furthermore, a DVD recorder like Gateway's also plays DVD's - and very well, too. It's a so-called progressive-scan player, which means that if your set has Y, Pb and Pr jacks on the back, you get an even more stable, brilliant picture.

For many people, though, storing movies and shows "taped" from the TV is only a secondary perk of owning a DVD recorder. The primary mission is more time-critical: rescuing VHS and camcorder tapes before they turn to dust.

Here, the Gateway does a great job. It offers input jacks in enough formats and locations to accommodate just about anything you want to hook up. On the back panel are S-video, coaxial and composite connectors (the standard red-white-yellow set of three connectors); on the front is another set of composite jacks so you can hook up your camcorder without crawling behind your TV table.

The front panel also offers, surprisingly, a FireWire input for today's digital camcorders - something that's missing from most DVD recorders under $600.

Better yet, the Gateway features extremely simple on-screen menus. Even the remote control is thoughtfully designed, featuring buttons of different sizes and shapes to help your thumb find its way in the dark.

All of this looks good on paper, but remember that this machine costs $300. The lightweight box has so few components inside, it feels practically hollow. You're entitled to wonder, then, how well it works, if indeed it works at all.

As long as you keep adding "compared with a VCR" to your critical assessments, the Gateway performs very well indeed.

The machine offers four quality settings that fit one, two, four or six hours onto a DVD. You can't see any difference whatsoever between the one- and two-hour modes, even with repeated A-B tests and a magnifying glass; both look indistinguishable from the original TV or videotape. The four-hour mode is fine for sitcoms, news and reality shows and still beats the quality of a VCR by a country mile. Only the six-hour mode looks blurry and blocky.

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